Tucker Zimmerman is a Summit County Realtor based in Frisco and an Associate Broker with Slifer Smith & Frampton. I help buyers and sellers across Breckenridge, Frisco, Silverthorne, Dillon, Keystone, Copper Mountain, and Wildernest understand this mountain market without the hype.
Disclosure: Everything below is just one Realtor’s educated guess based on local data, daily conversations, and way too much coffee. I do not have a crystal ball. If I did, I’d be writing this from my yacht in the Mediterranean instead of my office in Frisco.
How We Actually Got Here
If you’ve spent any time on YouTube lately, you’ve probably been told that the Colorado mountains are in “freefall,” “collapse,” or “the worst crash ever.”
Take a deep breath. Maybe drink some water. That stuff gets views, but it’s not what’s happening here in Summit County.
Here’s the real version.
When mortgage rates jumped in 2023 and 2024, nobody wanted to give up their 2.8 percent loan. So hardly anyone listed. Prices held because inventory was the lowest we'd seen in over a decade. Welcome to the golden handcuff era.
Then 2025 showed up, and real life finally broke the handcuffs. New jobs. Growing families. Downsizing. Divorce. Marriage. Inheritance. Grandkids appearing out of nowhere. You name it.
Suddenly, homes actually came on the market again. Not a little. A lot.
Inventory surged in spring and summer 2025, and demand stayed roughly the same as 2023 and 2024. That’s what caused price softening. No panic. No meltdown. Just more listings competing for the same number of buyers.
The Long View
This ShowingTime chart paints the picture nicely:
Strong appreciation from 2017 to 2023. A sideways year in 2024. Then the 2025 adjustment once inventory returned to normal human levels.
Where Prices Softened
The biggest softening happened in areas with a ton of similar condos. When ten nearly identical units hit the market at once, pricing gets real, real fast. These areas saw the biggest swings:
- Wildernest
- Dillon Valley
- Older condos in Keystone
- Several Silverthorne condo developments with similar layouts
Many of these units saw 10 to 15 percent off peak pricing. That is normal when supply rises in a homogenous market.
Where Prices Stayed Strong
Meanwhile, other parts of the county barely blinked. These areas stayed competitive throughout:
- Breckenridge in-town homes and ski access properties
- Frisco walkable neighborhoods near Main Street or Lake Dillon
- View and river-adjacent homes in Silverthorne
- River Run Village in Keystone
- Ski in/ski out at Copper
- Most luxury homes over 2 million
These buyers tend to be lifestyle-driven, less rate-sensitive, and focused on what Summit County actually offers.
What National Forecasts Say
National projections for 2026 are surprisingly aligned with what we’re seeing locally:
- Fannie Mae: Predicting lower rates and steady appreciation around 3 to 4 percent.
- Freddie Mac: Tight inventory should keep national prices stable.
- Zillow: Expecting modest gains and solid second-home activity.
- MBA: More buyers re-entering the market as rates normalize.
- NAR: Stronger transaction volume ahead.
- Goldman Sachs: Higher-income discretionary purchases are expected to rebound, which directly benefits resort markets.
Summit County almost always outperforms national averages because we are a true lifestyle market with limited buildable land. So our expected 4 to 6 percent appreciation lines up nicely with these forecasts.
So What Happens in 2026?
1. Quiet winter. Stronger summer.
Winter and early spring will feel normal. Stable. Balanced. Nothing wild. Once we hit May, activity should pick up quickly.
2. Appreciation returns, but slowly
Think 4 to 6 percent countywide, with some neighborhoods squeezing out a little more.
3. Homogenous condo areas recover slower
Wildernest, Dillon Valley, and older condo buildings will improve, but more gradually. Buyers have choices here.
4. Silverthorne’s new construction wave will matter
Silverthorne has more new construction than any other town. These homes will keep pricing balanced, especially for older homes without updates.
5. Breckenridge, Frisco, and premium neighborhoods should shine
Walkable neighborhoods, lake proximity, strong amenities, and ski access tend to recover the fastest.
Thinking About Making a Move?
Every market in Summit County behaves differently. If you want a grounded, local opinion on your property, your neighborhood, or your price range, I’m happy to talk through it without pressure.
Work With a Local Summit County Expert
Tucker Zimmerman
Full-time Realtor and Associate Broker, Slifer Smith & Frampton
Based in Frisco
Phone: 303-907-9129
Email: TZimmerman@SliferSummit.com
Website: https://www.soldinsummit.com/
If you want a curated shortlist, a custom valuation, HOA analysis, or help understanding STR rules, I’m here to help.